Trevor Shackles: Thursday Think Tank Some thoughts on the Karlsson rumours, Ottawa's prospects, and Anthony Duclair

enjoy the 32nd pick in the draft

The sens are asking the karlsson camp and prospective suitors to cooperate and have something come back to Ottawa by way of trade. If the price is too high teams can wait for a year and get the guy for free. We just saw all of this happen with Tavares. Why the GMs are lowballing makes sense, just a hard situation for Dorion to navigate

Heiskanen might be a reach, but if Dallas wants Karlsson they better be prepared to offer more than Honka.

The sens are asking the karlsson camp and prospective suitors to cooperate and have something come back to Ottawa by way of trade. If the price is too high teams can wait for a year and get the guy for free. We just saw all of this happen with Tavares. Why the GMs are lowballing makes sense, just a hard situation for Dorion to navigate
- Nastradamus

True, but doing that you risk him being traded to another team and signing longterm

enjoy the 32nd pick in the draft
- homiedclown

The lottery is only for the first round right, after that it's where you finish?.

I mean, you would know.

True, but doing that you risk him being traded to another team and signing longterm
- david22

For sure, I just think a lot of this rides on Karlssons behaviour and whether he thinks he should play nice and cooperate for the benefit of Ottawa. Given he likely is going to prioritize his interests it’s going to make it extremely challenging for Dorion to get close to market value

Heiskanen might be a reach, but if Dallas wants Karlsson they better be prepared to offer more than Honka.
- david22

Agreed on both counts.

Somehow your blogger is missing the point that promising young players are worth WAY more than their actual current level of play. It is all about the cap.

in the original article by Brennan he speculates that the Sens will get one of Brayden Point or Sergachev. Tampa do not have a 1st round pick next year so I assume TAMPa will add in another forward prospect. They have lots.

Yzerman has the assets to satisfy Dorion. All the other guys are just tire kickers and outside Edmonton or the Islanders they probably can’t package anything that gets Dorion’s attention. On the other hand, if the decision is being made by Melnyk it is only about dollars and any loose change you can spare.

Great blog, and totally agree on the craziness of other fanbases valuation of their prospects in this case (allfanbases do and that is fine, but in this case to say that you're not comfortable selling a lottery ticket for 1 million dollars, when at best that lottery ticket gives you slightly above average odds of winning between 0-1 mil, is insanity)
Hopefully PD does the same and sticks to his guns, and gets a top prospect from whoever ends up winning the deal, pay up or beat it. The funny thing is, whoever gets him, will be so amazed by how good he is, they will say that they stole him from Ottawa regardless of what they took to get EK, he is that good

I can't see anything with Honka being enough for Karlsson.

To me the weird one is Tampa Bay. They are going to be in huge cap trouble next year and likely going to have to give up a few pieces as well. Why make it worse by adding an $11 Million + a year guy into the mix and possibly Ryan.

So far I think Vegas can give the most.

In all of this, I've expressed over a few days with replies back from basically every troll on here but I can not understand why people aren't viewing this as a huge betrayal by Karlsson.

Yes I understand people and likely Karlsson doesn't like EM. But the team clearly is trying to make him happy by getting rid of Hoffman and making him an offer July 1st like they did.

Karlsson clearly lied to the media and fans when he said "I want to stay here long term"

Lots of things can be blamed on EM or a few others, I for one want PD fired. But Karlsson being unloyal and wanting out despite the team making every attempt to making him happy.... That's on Karlsson.

in the original article by Brennan he speculates that the Sens will get one of Brayden Point or Sergachev. Tampa do not have a 1st round pick next year so I assume TAMPa will add in another forward prospect. They have lots.

Yzerman has the assets to satisfy Dorion. All the other guys are just tire kickers and outside Edmonton or the Islanders they probably can’t package anything that gets Dorion’s attention. On the other hand, if the decision is being made by Melnyk it is only about dollars and any loose change you can spare.
- spatso

No on Point from my perspective. Was the best forward in the playoffs for the Bolts outside of game 1 against the Bruins.

I can see Yzerman move Sergachev if he has to. Would be interesting to see how it plays out because right now Dorion is in a bad spot.

The lottery is only for the first round right, after that it's where you finish?.

I mean, you would know.
- david22

spoken like a true leaf fan



your mama would be proud

I can't see anything with Honka being enough for Karlsson.

To me the weird one is Tampa Bay. They are going to be in huge cap trouble next year and likely going to have to give up a few pieces as well. Why make it worse by adding an $11 Million + a year guy into the mix and possibly Ryan.

So far I think Vegas can give the most.

In all of this, I've expressed over a few days with replies back from basically every troll on here but I can not understand why people aren't viewing this as a huge betrayal by Karlsson.

Yes I understand people and likely Karlsson doesn't like EM. But the team clearly is trying to make him happy by getting rid of Hoffman and making his an offer July 1st like they did.

Karlsson clearly lied to the media and fans when he said "I want to stay here long term"

Lots of things can be blamed on EM or a few others, I for one want PD fired. But Karlsson being unloyal and wanting out despite the team making every attempt to making him happy.... That's on Karlsson.
- Maverick1818

If ownership changes this afternoon Karlsson resigns in Ottawa.

If he is moving on he is going for a Stanley Cup and Tampa is where he needs to be.

Tampa has no cap problem this year. But they have a talent pool which allows them to move the assers that will enable a right outcome. I think Dorion knows what he is getting and he is happy.

The offers are low because Ottawa has no leverage, but it sounds like you realized that by the end of the write up

Karlsson clearly lied to the media and fans when he said "I want to stay here long term"
- Maverick1818

I don't think so. I think he honestly meant it, at the time. If I recall correctly, he said this around the trade deadline, months before the Hoffman saga exploded, and also before he lost his son.

Maybe things have changed since then, and he now feels like he needs a clean slate/new team/reset. I for one don't think he's a quitter nor do I think he's being disloyal.

If ownership changes this afternoon Karlsson resigns in Ottawa.

If he is moving on he is going for a Stanley Cup and Tampa is where he needs to be.

Tampa has no cap problem this year. But they have a talent pool which allows them to move the assers that will enable a right outcome. I think Dorion knows what he is getting and he is happy.
- spatso

You and Maverick could start a sitcom where all you do is discuss the Senators.

It would be hilarious. You have already put out enough material for a few seasons worth.

If ownership changes this afternoon Karlsson resigns in Ottawa.

If he is moving on he is going for a Stanley Cup and Tampa is where he needs to be.

Tampa has no cap problem this year. But they have a talent pool which allows them to move the assers that will enable a right outcome. I think Dorion knows what he is getting and he is happy.
- spatso

Yes Tamps is doing okay this year, It's next year where they are in big trouble.

Having to give huge raises to Point, Kuch, Gourde, Stralman, Coburn, Girardi, KoekKoek and a few others.

Then Callahan, Sergachev and both goalies the year after.... I don't see how that's possible to stay under the cap, Adding $11+ Million an year and possibly Ryan is impossible without tons of cap getting shipped out.

Fair enough, if EM sells the team today, Karlsson resigns. What if he hired people to run it and just stepped back as owner? Would Karlsson resign?

The point is mute, doesn't matter who the owner is the facts are the team has shipped out Hoffman for nothing to make Karlsson happy and made Karlsson and offer.

And the fact is Karlsson clearly lied to the entire fan base when he said he wants to stay here... If he wanted to he would have signed or at least negotiated July 1st.

I don't see how that is anything other than a huge betrayal

I don't think so. I think he honestly meant it, at the time. If I recall correctly, he said this around the trade deadline, months before the Hoffman saga exploded, and also before he lost his son.

Maybe things have changed since then, and he now feels like he needs a clean slate/new team/reset. I for one don't think he's a quitter nor do I think he's being disloyal.
- Panzer_IVA

Or he finally had enough of the ownership circus AND the unforgivable twitter attacks on his wife, the Asst GM who can't keep his hands to himself AND the fanbase who can't fill the arena for a playoff game AND the mostly horrible team around him.

and especially the parking.

I don't think so. I think he honestly meant it, at the time. If I recall correctly, he said this around the trade deadline, months before the Hoffman saga exploded, and also before he lost his son.

Maybe things have changed since then, and he now feels like he needs a clean slate/new team/reset. I for one don't think he's a quitter nor do I think he's being disloyal.
- Panzer_IVA

He's said it before that, but he also said it at the end of the year after he picked up the puck in the final game. While the Hoffman's gf stuff was going on and after the loss of his son.

And the fact is Karlsson clearly lied to the entire fan base when he said he wants to stay here... If he wanted to he would have signed or at least negotiated July 1st.

I don't see how that is anything other than a huge betrayal
- Maverick1818

You are taking this too personally. He may not have been lying at all.

Yeah... that Tavares situation really worked out for Stars... and Sharks... and Lightning... and Habs... and Bruins...etc

The question these GMs have to be asking is do I guarantee that I get the player by trading for him at a cost now, or do I take a chance that I lose him by waiting because I don't want to lose any assets.

If you chose to explore the trade option, you have to weigh how much the guarantee of getting the player is worth (vs the chance you lose out on him), in addition to the fact that you get 9 years of Karlsson (this last year of his current deal + the additional year you get from re-signing) rather than the 7 years you would get otherwise.

If I were another team's GM, avoiding the risk of losing the player to another team in free agency (potentially a division rival) and the two extra years (one of which is at a bargain price of 6.5 million) is worth a lot.

The sens are asking the karlsson camp and prospective suitors to cooperate and have something come back to Ottawa by way of trade. If the price is too high teams can wait for a year and get the guy for free. We just saw all of this happen with Tavares. Why the GMs are lowballing makes sense, just a hard situation for Dorion to navigate
- Nastradamus

Then they never wanted him bad enough anyways, and were content to let him slip to another team.

Karlsson clearly lied to the media and fans when he said "I want to stay here long term"

Lots of things can be blamed on EM or a few others, I for one want PD fired. But Karlsson being unloyal and wanting out despite the team making every attempt to making him happy.... That's on Karlsson.
- Maverick1818

What else can Karlsson say in this situation? He's not going to say he wants to leave, that would just hurt the team even more.

Then they never wanted him bad enough anyways, and were content to let him slip to another team.
- sportsdataguy

Dorion has to take the best offer for the guy, and move on. It is a poopty situation for the organization.

Moving on is the better move in the long run. His next contract, especially for a budget team, is going to be crippling.

You guys will be better off.